Power sector’s emissions accelerate one year after carbon tax’s demise

Emissions from Australia’s main power sector are rising at an increasing rate one year after the end of the carbon price, with plants in Victoria fired by brown coal the biggest contributors, according to an energy consultancy. In the year to June, emissions from the National Electricity Market (NEM) jumped by about 6.4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, or about 4.3 per cent, according to Pitt & Sherry’s monthly Cedex report. Brown coal’s share of the NEM, which supplies the eastern states and about 80 per cent of Australia’s population with electricity, rose by about 2 percentage points in the 12 months since the carbon tax was scrapped, to 24.3 per cent. Black coal increased its share by half as much, to 51.5 per cent.

Combined, coal plants supplied 75.8 per cent of NEM power, up from 72.7 per cent from June 2014, with zero-emissions hydro power giving up most of the share.

“All demand growth is going to be supplied by coal, and when you add in the LNG consumption, it will definitely be an acceleration,” Dr Saddler said.

Environment Minister Greg Hunt has downplayed the impact of the carbon tax, which raised electricity prices by about 10 per cent, although residential users were mostly compensated for the increase. Mr Hunt is banking on the $2.55 billion Emissions Reduction Fund – which pays polluters to cut back – to help Australia meet its global commitment to cut pollution by 5 per cent from 2000 levels by 2020. He will announce new targets beyond the decade’s end later this month. Hydro-electricity generators are now supplying 6.9 per cent of NEM demand, down from 9.8 per cent in June 2014. Falling reservoir levels – as drier conditions set in, with the El Nino climate pattern setting in over the Pacific – suggest hydro’s share will remain subdued. LNG production is ramping up, mostly to meet export demand. Its share of NEM supply is now down to 11.9 per cent after peaking at 13.2 per cent last December, and can be expected to drop further with a resultant emissions rise as dirtier coal fills the gap, Dr Saddler said. “All the low-emission sources are flat or declining,” he said. Wind energy’s share crept 0.5 per cent higher in the past year to 5.4 per cent at the end of June 2015. The impasse over the Renewable Energy Target for 2020, resolved only late last month, means no new wind projects of any scale are likely for some time, Dr Saddler said. After falling for five years, power demand picked up 1.4 per cent in 2014-15, Pitt & Sherry said, citing figures from the Australian Energy Market Operator. By 2018-19, the LNG industry may added about 5 per cent of NEM demand as the sector continues to ramp up. the sydney morning herald