Heat waves are forecast to begin taking the lives of some 350 Maltese a year by 2071, according to a new study published by the respected journal Lancet Planetary Health on Friday.
As the mercury continues to rise over the next 54 years, children being born today will be yearning for the comparatively ‘cool’ summer days of their childhood before they reach retirement age.
According to the new study, southern Europe is destined to be hit the hardest based on projections for heat waves and droughts. Almost everyone living in Malta, Italy, Greece, Spain, Croatia, Cyprus, Portugal and Slovenia would be affected by such weather-related disasters, causing 700 deaths per million people annually. This compares with the current 11 deaths per million people, researchers found.
The figure exceeds the premature mortality rate due to air pollution in Europe, which is today considered the greatest environmental risk factor for disease burden in Europe. The air pollution mortality rate in 2010 stood at 439 annual deaths per million people and which by 2050 is forecast to claim 598 annual deaths per million people.
And as the ‘Lucifer’ heat wave currently continues to grip Malta and the rest of southern Europe, far worse is in store, with researchers estimating that 99 per cent of future weather-related deaths will be due to heat waves. That could very well cause a spike in cardiovascular disease, stroke and respiratory diseases, the researchers suggested.
And the outlook for southern Europe, and especially Malta which sits at Europe’s southernmost tip, is the bleakest, with researchers forecasting that weather extremes could become the greatest environmental risk factor.
As the study finds, “The overall progressive increased risk to human beings shows a prominent latitudinal gradient towards southern European countries. This pattern is largely driven by the stronger rise in the frequency and intensity of heat waves towards the south, fewer droughts in northern Europe, and an upsurge in drought conditions in southern regions.”
On a wider scale the authoritative study, ‘Increasing risk over time of weather-related hazards to the European population: a data-driven prognostic study’ also forecasts that by the end of the century, two out of three people in Europe, a total of 350 million people in 31 countries, will be affected by heat waves, coastal floods and other weather-related disasters, largely due to global warming and climate change
Overall, weather-related disasters are expected to cause 152,000 deaths a year in Europe between 2071 and 2100, skyrocketing from the 3,000 weather disaster-related deaths a year during the study’s reference period of 1981 to 2010.
In addition to heat-related deaths, annual coastal flooding-related deaths are gauged to rise from six to 233 by the end of the century. Droughts could also reduce the water needed for food production and basic needs for 138 million people, the researchers said.
Previous studies have pointed to population growth, urbanisation and migration as drivers of disaster risk in the future.
“Our results show that for the future, climate change will likely be the dominant driver of the projected trends, accounting for more than 90 per cent of the rise in risk to population,” Giovanni Forzieri of the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, lead author of the new study was quoted as saying. “Population changes such as growth, migration and urbanization will account for the remaining 10%.
“This study shows that, unless global warming is curbed as a matter of urgency and appropriate adaptation measures are taken, about 350 million Europeans could be exposed to harmful climate extremes on an annual basis by the end of this century, with a 50-fold increase in fatalities compared with now,” Forzieri said.
The study was funded by the European Commission and conducted by researchers with expertise in climate sciences and human geography from the Joint Research Centre. The Joint Research Centre provides scientific advice for the European Commission and support to EU policy.
Source: http://bit.ly/2foovZ1
