“We have faults that cross all over Lebanon so you cannot neglect this hazard.” During a conference at BIEL Tuesday to discuss preparing Lebanon’s infrastructure for an earthquake, Marie stressed the importance of implementing decree 7964. The Public Works and Transportation Ministry in April 2012 issued decree 7964, which stipulated new fire safety and seismic regulations that all buildings were required to meet. The decree states that only strategic buildings such as power plants, water tanks, hospitals and universities should be audited and strengthened to meet the new standards. Marie said that this alone was a major job as over 60 percent of buildings built before 1990 were not up to the new standards. “We will begin with the strategic buildings as was stated in the decree but, moreover, we should go further and begin to strengthen other buildings, notably buildings with public occupancy such as hotels, hospitals and schools,” he added. “Then we should move quickly into residential buildings.” The cost of upgrading the infrastructure is also steep. Marie said it costs 1-3 percent of a new building’s budget to meet seismic standards and anywhere from 14-20 percent of an existing building’s value to strengthen it. Therefore, updating Lebanon’s entire infrastructure would require billions of dollars. “Who will finance this strengthening? Unfortunately I don’t think the Lebanese government has the financial means to do this,” he said. “We will have to find some serious solutions in order to finance this. “This hazard should be taken seriously into consideration [as] it’s not the earthquakes that kill human beings; it’s the buildings.” It’s no secret that Lebanon is most likely due for an earthquake of sizable magnitude as the country sits within range of three major fault lines: the Yammouneh fault line, which runs from Turkey down to Palestine through the middle of Lebanon; the Serghaya fault line, situated under the Bekaa Valley; and the Mount Lebanon Thrust off the coast in the Mediterranean. The abundance of mountains in Lebanon is a clear indication of the amount of shifting in tectonic plates below the surface. According to Dr. Alexandre Sursock, the director of the Center of Geophysics Research at the National Council for Scientific Research, Lebanon’s mountains are growing at a rate of 5 mm per year due to seismic activity. The most damaging earthquake in Lebanon’s recent history was in 1956 and had an estimated magnitude of 7.6. It destroyed 6,000 homes, damaged 17,000 more and killed 136 people, mostly in the Chouf district. Sursock explained that it is difficult to predict the likelihood of another earthquake this severe but he doubted Lebanon’s capacity to withstand another sizable earthquake. “I think [a magnitude 6 earthquake] would not be very damaging to either the Lebanese economy or society,” he said. “Half a step forward to 6.5, however, would be a greater event. … Aside from the fact that it would be more damaging locally, the area that it would damage would be much wider.” Sursock and Marie agree that raising awareness among Lebanese society about the dangers of earthquakes is also important. Marie stressed the importance of training engineers on how to adequately diagnose and improve existing sites. “We should do some technical training within the Order of the Engineers … in order for them to be able to do auditing for seismic protection,” Marie said. Meanwhile, Sursock is more interested in looking to the future. “We are raising awareness. We are distributing posters and documents. We are receiving children at the laboratory and at the observatory,” Sursock said. “I think the next generation will be much more concerned than ours.” Mazin Sidahmed| The Daily Star
